Vietnam stock market time to catch

 Vietnam stock market time to catch: Where is the money stuck?

Stock transactions fell sharply, real estate froze, gold fell... Many people think that money is flowing into the banking system when savings interest rates have increased continuously in recent years. However, in reality, banks are also struggling to mobilize. So where is the money?

Capital stuck in real estate

SSI Securities Joint Stock Company (HM: SSI ) announced that the amount of new credit injected into the market in the first nine months of 2022 reached more than 1 million billion VND, while only 440,000 billion VND was mobilized from residents and organizations. economic organization. As of September 2, credit increased by 10.54% compared to the end of 2021, capital mobilization increased by 4.04% (compared to 4.24% in 2021) and M2 money supply increased by 2.49% (vs. 95% by 2021). This obviously puts considerable pressure on deposit interest rates in recent years. The deposit-credit gap has been negative since July and has not improved much at the moment.

Banks push high interest rates to attract capital. Ngoc Thang

In response to the question of increasing deposit interest rates, but banks are still struggling to raise capital, where is the money stuck, Mr. Dinh The Hien, director of the Institute of Informatics Research & Applied Economics, said. The source of money for medium and long-term loans in the two years 2020-2021 will increase, especially in real estate.

Currently, the money cannot be returned in time, and customers do not pay their debts on time, including the bonds. The reason the money didn't arrive on time was due to the medium-term and short-term lending structure at each bank. In case the bank lends more short-term loans, the cash flow is continuous, returning to the bank quickly. As for medium and long-term loans, the money does not come back more when real estate companies can't sell goods. Liquidity difficulties of real estate businesses have appeared since mid-2021 and the current situation is even more serious. Limited credit limits also partly reduce people's buying and selling needs. Therefore, cash flow back to banks is also slower.

Assoc. Prof-Dr. Dinh Trong Thinh (Academy of Finance) said: “Money is currently stuck in assets. In 9 months, credit growth was more than 10%, but credit growth for real estate was faster, about 12%. 1-2 years ago, people's cash flow was still strong in securities and corporate bonds. In which, real estate enterprises that issue bonds to raise capital through bond channels ranked second after banks. The illiquid real estate market also leads to slower repayment. Therefore, money is mainly in real estate assets.

Opening the way for cash flow to return

The stock market, real estate, corporate bonds about 1-2 years ago were active. People's homes buy real estate, securities, bonds when interest rates on deposits at banks plummet. However, according to data from the Ho Chi Minh City Real Estate Association , in the first eight months of 2022, the group of real estate businesses only issued individual corporate bonds with a value of more than VND 47,000 billion with an average interest rate of about 10.2%, accounting for 21.3% of the total value of issued bonds, ranking second after the banking sector, but sharply decreasing compared to the same period in 2021. This amount of bonds is only half of that in the first 6 months of 2021. Some businesses The business has a need to raise capital but cannot meet the new issuance conditions. Therefore, real estate businesses will find it harder to access the bond capital market than before.

Mr. Dinh Trong Thinh commented that the stock market and real estate market declined, many investors still did not sell. In addition, a part of the capital in the population shifted to gold in the fear of inflation. Although domestic inflation is controlled at less than 4%, many people see commodity prices increasing so they buy gold for shelter. Therefore, there are times when the domestic gold price skyrockets, up to 20 million dong/tael higher than the world. Part of the money flows here.

Besides, according to Assoc. Prof. Dr. Dinh Trong Thinh, looking at the M2 money supply index decreased by nearly half compared to the same period last year, this clearly shows that the cash flow in the market is much less. To remove current capital flows, it is necessary to rebuild confidence in the market. With the positive economic growth momentum of the third quarter, it is expected that this year's economic growth will overcome the current difficulties. At this time, more capital will flow into the stock market and real estate. At the same time, the new regulations will open up capital flows through the corporate bond market channel.

On October 7, interest rates on the interbank market continued to decrease for terms from 0.12 to 1.12%/year. Specifically, the overnight interest rate down to 6.5%/year, 1 week to 7.17%/year, 2 weeks to 7.39%/year, 1 month to 7.76%/year, 3 months down 7.8%/year, 6 months to 7.8%/year, 1 year down to 7.88%/year. Through the open market, the State Bank pumped out about 3,800 billion VND to 6 members with the interest rate of 5.5%/year.

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